The partial suspension of tariffs does not eliminate the real impact on African economies. The continent is once again out of the spotlight and needs responses of its own.
The economy needs confidence. But in Africa, confidence is shaky in a context where the rules of the game change by the minute - even by the second. When US President Donald Trump announced a wave of tariffs on 2 April, there were looks of disbelief and uncertainty on the African continent. While it is true that these 54 countries were not the main target, there is no doubt that the effects were not long in coming.
Moreover, the suspension of reciprocal tariffs for 90 days has not dispelled the feeling that Africa is no longer a priority for the US administration. The African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) and the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) have become increasingly in the air. US imports from Africa amounted to $39 billion in 2024. Although this seems a small amount, exports to the US are a significant fraction of total exports.
The US is no longer interested in Africa
In 2000, under the presidency of Bill Clinton, AGOA was created. An area that promotes trade between the United States and Africa without paying tariffs (textiles, cocoa, oil, etc.). It is in force until this year (2025) and its renewal is now in doubt. Unlike what could happen with Canada and Mexico with the USMCA (United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement), where these tariffs will not be charged, this is not the case with its African counterpart.
The instability this can generate was clearly reflected in places like Lesotho. A small landlocked country, it is surrounded entirely by South Africa. Despite its size, it is a major exporter of clothing from sub-Saharan Africa to the United States, thanks to the benefits of programmes such as AGOA. On 2 April, they were looking at the Oval Office and a percentage: 50%. That was the tariff figure to be paid. Today they are breathing a little easier. It should be remembered that 29% of total African exports to the US are accounted for by Lesotho.
A small, little-known territory that today becomes a symbol of all the jobs and families at stake in this trade war.
The storm abates, but the rain continues to fall.
Washington's decision to pause reciprocal tariffs for 90 days does not detract from the fact that the underlying problem remains intact. The universal 10% tariff on all imports remains in place, and with it, a series of consequences that are difficult to avoid. Jaume Portell, a journalist specialising in economics and international relations, explains it well: "If the economy slows down, so does production; and with it, fewer raw materials are bought. It is here that Africa is affected to the full".
This is compounded by an indirect inflationary impact on manufactured goods. Many of those consumed in Africa depend on international supply chains. This results in a much higher final cost.
Hidden opportunity
The ISS (Institute for Security Studies) published an article a few days ago on how the loss of aid in Africa, whether by the US or the EU, can be an opportunity for the continent. Beyond being a particularly difficult task, it is not without a background that many analysts share.
Alejandro López, a specialist in international politics and director of the media 'Descifrando la Guerra', described this tariff dispute as an opportunity to diversify the economy. As he pointed out, this is nothing new on the African continent. In recent years, new actors such as China, Turkey and Russia have entered the scene and are already playing a key role.
Africa is also rich in natural resources, and this is another point highlighted by geopolitical analyst Ovigwe Eguegu: "Value-added processing is a priority for African countries with or without tariffs, especially critical and strategic minerals, in the midst of global demand". Still, he assumes that global economic uncertainty makes this idea very difficult in the short term.
Similarly, Eguegu calls for strengthening the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). In other words, trade between African countries without tariffs, which would reduce dependence on external markets and create greater African value chains. Of course, as journalist Jaume Portell reminds us, today, the African continent's consumption capacity is far from that of markets such as the United States. And the Trump administration, like any other, is well aware of this.