The recent wave of coups d'état in sub-Saharan Africa, dubbed the “coup belt”, raises the crucial question: do other countries on the continent need coups to change governance paradigms? Analysis suggests that, while coups are symptoms of deep social contract failures, reflecting frustrations with corruption, insecurity and inequality, they are not the necessary, or effective, means for structural transformation.
Coups are not development projects, but a violent expression of the failure of civilian regimes to deliver justice and dignity. When democratic institutions become mere façades for clientelism and unpopular governance, military power steps into the breach under the discourse of “national salvation”. This rupture may disrupt the corrupt status quo, but African history shows that it is an ambiguous shortcut - juntas promise sovereignty and renewal, but often replace civilian elites with uniformed elites, keeping structures of exclusion and inequality intact.
The ambiguity lies in the ethical and pragmatic dilemma: is it worth trading a corrupt system for an authoritarian order that promises efficiency and sovereignty, even though efficiency and justice are not synonymous? Analytically, the military lacks the institutional tools to manage complex economies, redress structural inequality or uphold civil rights. Studies indicate negative economic impacts and short-lived political gains.
Geopolitically, coups rearrange alliances, attracting new partners and instrumentalising anti-Western sentiment, as seen in former French colonies. However, this strategic reconfiguration, which can strengthen the state's symbolic autonomy, risks impoverishing its social and economic autonomy.
Ultimately, the coup is a worse cure than the disease. It removes unpopular governments, but does not offer a cure for the root causes of the African crisis. The real paradigm shift and political sustainability will not come from the barracks, but from the patient rebuilding of strong institutions, political ethics and citizen participation that demands and builds a model of governance that delivers freedom and social justice.