Africa will surpass the economic growth of Asia as a whole for the first time in decades, according to the latest forecasts from the International Monetary Fund.
The organization forecasts that the African continent will achieve a GDP increase of 4.61% in 2026 and 2027. In Asia, the combined growth will be 4.41% and 4.31% and 4.31%, respectively.
This progress is supported by several structural factors. These include abundant mineral resources, a growing population, and economic reforms in key countries.
The IMF also attributes the improvement to greater macroeconomic stability and measures aimed at modernizing national economies in recent years.
However, the continent does not follow a uniform economic pattern. Experts point out that the diversity of production models makes it impossible to speak of a single African development strategy.
Some economies depend primarily on the exploitation of natural resources. Nigeria, Angola, and Equatorial Guinea base much of their growth on the extractive sector.
In other countries, the impetus comes from export-oriented agriculture or emerging industries, such as textile production in Ethiopia.
There are also economies that have focused on services or tourism. Kenya stands out for its service sector, while Mauritius benefits from tourism.
Analysts also point to a continent that is developing at two speeds. Some countries maintain an extractive model with little added value and low-quality jobs.
Others have pursued profound reforms and productive diversification. Rwanda, Ivory Coast, Senegal, and Tanzania are cited as examples of economies with better results.
African growth also exhibits structural differences compared to Asian growth. A significant portion of GDP growth stems from an increase in the working-age population.
In fact, approximately two points of continental growth are explained by population growth rather than productivity improvements.
This situation limits the impact of population growth. Several organizations warn that GDP per capita has barely changed in recent years.
The future challenge will be to transform that dynamism into real prosperity through investments in education, health, transport and infrastructure that allow us to take advantage of the demographic boom.
Source: El País